Precursory slope distress prior to the 2010 Mount Meager landslide,British Columbia   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Gioachino Roberti  Brent Ward  Benjamin van Wyk de Vries  Pierre Friele  Luigi Perotti  John J. Clague  Marco Giardino 《Landslides》2018,15(4):637-647

In 2010, the south flank of Mount Meager failed catastrophically, generating the largest (53 ± 3.8 × 10⁶ m³) landslide in Canadian history. We document the slow deformation of the edifice prior to failure using archival historic aerial photographs spanning the period 1948–2006. All photos were processed using Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry. We used the SfM products to produce pre-and post-failure geomorphic maps that document changes in the volcanic edifice and Capricorn Glacier at its base. The photographic dataset shows that the Capricorn Glacier re-advanced from a retracted position in the 1980s then rapidly retreated in the lead-up to the 2010 failure. The dataset also documents 60 years of progressive development of faults, toe bulging, and precursory failures in 1998 and 2009. The 2010 collapse was conditioned by glacial retreat and triggered by hot summer weather that caused ice and snow to melt. Meltwater increased pore water pressures in colluvium and fractured rocks at the base of the slope, causing those materials to mobilize, which in turn triggered several secondary failures structurally controlled by lithology and faults. The landslide retrogressed from the base of the slope to near the peak of Mount Meager involving basement rock and the overlying volcanic sequence. Elsewhere on the flanks of Mount Meager, large fractures have developed in recently deglaciated areas, conditioning these slopes for future collapse. Potential failures in these areas have larger volumes than the 2010 landslide. Anticipated atmospheric warming over the next several decades will cause further loss of snow and glacier ice, likely producing additional slope instability. Satellite- and ground-based monitoring of these slopes can provide advanced warning of future landslides to help reduce risk in populated regions downstream.  相似文献   

Testing optically stimulated luminescence dating on sand-sized quartz of deltaic deposits from the Sperchios delta plain,central Greece   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Evangelos Tsakalos  Elias Dimitriou  Maria Kazantzaki  Christos Anagnostou  John Christodoulakis  Eleni Filippaki 《古地理学报》2018,(2)

This study reports on the first investigation into the potential of luminescence dating to establish a chronological framework for the depositional sequences of the Sperchios delta plain, central Greece. A series of three borehole cores(20 m deep) and two shallow cores(4 m deep), from across the delta plain, were extracted, and samples were collected for luminescence dating. The luminescence ages of sand-sized quartz grains were obtained from small aliquots of quartz, using the Single-Aliquot Regenerative-dose(SAR) protocol.The equivalent dose determination included a series of tests and the selection of the Minimum Age Model(MAM) as the most appropriate statistical model. This made it possible to confirm the applicability of quartz Optically Stimulated Luminescence(OSL) dating to establish absolute chronology for deltaic sediments from the Sperchios delta plain.Testing age results of the five cores showed that the deltaic sediments were deposited during the Holocene.A relatively rapid deposition is implied for the top ~14 m possibly as a result of the deceleration in the rate of the sea-level rise and the transition to terrestrial conditions, while on the deeper parts, the reduced sedimentation rate may indicate a lagoonal or coastal environment.  相似文献   

Using Simple Dilution Models to Predict New Zealand Estuarine Water Quality     

David R. Plew  John R. Zeldis  Ude Shankar  Alexander H. Elliott 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(6):1643-1659

A tool based on simple dilution models is developed to predict potential nutrient concentrations and flushing times for New Zealand estuaries. Potential nutrient concentrations are the concentrations that would occur in the absence of nutrient uptake or losses through biogeochemical processes, and so represent the pressure on a system due to nutrient loading. The dilution modelling approach gives a single time- and space-averaged concentration as a function of flow and nutrient input, with the capability to include seasonal nutrient and flow differences. This tool is intended to be used to identify estuaries likely to be highly sensitive to current nutrient loads based on their physical attributes, or to quickly compare the effects of different land-use scenarios on estuaries. The dilution modelling approach is applied both to a case study of a single New Zealand estuary, and used in a New Zealand-wide assessment of 415 estuaries. For the NZ-wide assessment, annual nutrient loads to each estuary were obtained from a GIS-based land-use model. Comparison with measured data shows that the predicted potential nitrate concentrations are significantly correlated with, but higher than, measured nitrate values from water quality sampling time series. This is consistent with expectations given that the measured concentrations include the effects of nitrogen uptake and loss. The estuary dilution modelling approach is currently incorporated into the GIS-land use model, and is also available as a web-app for assessing eutrophication susceptibility of New Zealand estuaries.  相似文献   

Implementing landslide path dependency in landslide susceptibility modelling     

Jalal Samia  Arnaud Temme  Arnold K. Bregt  Jakob Wallinga  John Stuiver  Fausto Guzzetti  Francesca Ardizzone  Mauro Rossi 《Landslides》2018,15(11):2129-2144

Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling.  相似文献   

Balance of Catchment and Offshore Nutrient Loading and Biogeochemical Response in Four New Zealand Coastal Systems: Implications for Resource Management     

John R. Zeldis  Dennis P. Swaney 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(8):2240-2259

Nutrient mass balance analyses are a way of obtaining ‘whole system’ viewpoints on coastal biogeochemical functions and their forcing. Seasonal mass balances are presented for four large bay systems in New Zealand (NZ), with the aim of showing how they can inform coastal management. Freshwater volumes, and surface and groundwater, wastewater and atmospheric inorganic and organic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) were balanced with levels of salinity, N and P from ocean surveys, used to determine non-conservative N and P fluxes and, via stoichiometry, carbon (C) fluxes. For Golden and Tasman Bays and Hauraki Gulf, exchange with adjacent shelf waters usually dominated total N supply (80–85%). In contrast, for the Firth of Thames, 51% of total N and 85% of dissolved inorganic N supply originated from its agricultural catchment. Net ecosystem metabolism (NEM; balance of autotrophy and heterotrophy) of Golden and Tasman Bays and Hauraki Gulf was usually nearly balanced. In contrast, Firth NEM was highly seasonally variable, often exhibiting strong heterotrophy coincident with expression of respiration-related stressors (low O₂ and high DIC/low pH). Denitrification accounted for about 51% of total N export across the four systems, signifying its importance as a eutrophication-regulating ecosystem service. Budgets made 12 years apart in the Firth showed decreased denitrification efficiency, coincident with large increases in system N and phytoplankton. The findings for land-ocean nutrient balance, NEM and denitrification showed how mass balance budgeting can inform coastal management, including inventories of nutrient inputs, balances of oceanic and terrestrial nutrient loading, and potential for risk associated with biogeochemical responses.  相似文献   

Experiments of DSAEF_LTP Model with Two Improved Parameters for Accumulated Precipitation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over Southeast China     

秦思  贾莉  丁晨晨  任福民  约翰·L·麦克布莱  李国平 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(3):286-296

The Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model for landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) precipitation (DSAEF_LTP) utilises an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for the forecast track, while the precipitation forecast is obtained by finding analog cyclones, and making a precipitation forecast from an ensemble of the analogs. This study addresses TCs that occurred from 2004 to 2019 in Southeast China with 47 TCs as training samples and 18 TCs for independent forecast experiments. Experiments use four model versions. The control experiment DSAEF_LTP_1 includes three factors including TC track, landfall season, and TC intensity to determine analogs. Versions DSAEF_LTP_2, DSAEF_LTP_3, and DSAEF_LTP_4 respectively integrate improved similarity region, improved ensemble method, and improvements in both parameters. Results show that the DSAEF_LTP model with new values of similarity region and ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_4) performs best in the simulation experiment, while the DSAEF_LTP model with new values only of ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_3) performs best in the forecast experiment. The reason for the difference between simulation (training sample) and forecast (independent sample) may be that the proportion of TC with typical tracks (southeast to northwest movement or landfall over Southeast China) has changed significantly between samples. Forecast performance is compared with that of three global dynamical models (ECMWF, GRAPES, and GFS) and a regional dynamical model (SMS-WARMS). The DSAEF_LTP model performs better than the dynamical models and tends to produce more false alarms in accumulated forecast precipitation above 250 mm and 100 mm. Compared with TCs without heavy precipitation or typical tracks, TCs with these characteristics are better forecasted by the DSAEF_LTP model.  相似文献   

Guidelines and pitfalls of refraction microtremor surveys     

Louie  John N.  Pancha  Aasha  Kissane  B. 《Journal of Seismology》2022,26(4):567-582

Journal of Seismology - The geotechnical industry has widely adopted the refraction microtremor shear-wave velocity measurement technique, which is accepted by building authorities for evaluation...  相似文献   

A review of inverse methods in seismic site characterization     

Gosselin  Jeremy M.  Dosso  Stan E.  Askan  Aysegul  Wathelet  Marc  Savvaidis  Alexandros  Cassidy  John F. 《Journal of Seismology》2022,26(4):781-821

Journal of Seismology - Seismic site characterization attempts to quantify seismic wave behavior at a specific location based on near-surface geophysical properties, for the purpose of mitigating...  相似文献   

Correction: Guidelines and pitfalls of refraction microtremor surveys     

Louie  John N.  Pancha  Aasha  Kissane  B. 《Journal of Seismology》2022,26(4):583-584

Journal of Seismology -  相似文献   

Where Is the PFAS? Innovations in PFAS Detection and Characterization     

John Horst  Craig Divine  Joe Quinnan  Johnsie Lang  Erika Carter  Theresa Guillette  Vivek Pulikkal 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2022,42(1):13-23

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